Why Is This American Government Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature of US politics – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of shifting political forces and bad blood among the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because each side – including the nation's leader – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
Here are the four ways that make this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown in the spring. Now he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have openly indicated of the fact that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Chicago.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader a Republican, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the representative appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.